At a Glance
- Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico should allow Laura to strengthen significantly.
- Laura is predicted to become a major hurricane prior to landfall on the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coasts.
- Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds will affect areas near where Laura makes landfall.
- Storm surge could penetrate as much as 30 miles inland in southwest Louisiana.
- Laura is also an inland flood risk as far north as Arkansas or southern Missouri.
- Isolated tornadoes are also expected from Laura.
Hurricane Laura is rapidly intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico and expected to strike the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coasts as a major hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday. Life-threatening storm surge and destructive winds will batter the region and a threat of flooding rain and strong winds will extend well inland.
Laura has strengthened again, this time to 105 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, as of early Wednesday morning.
Residents along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts should prepare now for a major hurricane strike. Follow any evacuation orders issued by local or state officials.
(LATEST NEWS: Hundreds of Thousands Ordered to Evacuate)
Current Status
Laura became the fourth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday morning, based on measurements taken by NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft.
Laura has prompted hurricane and storm surge warnings for the Gulf Coast.
A storm surge warning is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana, including Galveston Bay and areas inside the Port Arthur, Texas, hurricane flood protection system.
This means a life-threatening storm surge is expected in the next 36 hours. Residents in these areas should heed all evacuation orders and instructions from local emergency management and take necessary precautions to protect life and property.
A hurricane warning is now in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. This includes Galveston, parts of the east Houston metro area, Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, Lake Charles, Louisiana, and several additional inland counties and parishes of east Texas and southwestern Louisiana extending north of Interstate 10.
Hurricane warnings are typically issued 36 hours before tropical storm-force winds are expected to begin, making storm preparations difficult.
Tropical storm warnings extend into the rest of the Houston metro area, north to the Arkansas border in Lousiana, and east into south-central and southeast Louisiana, including the city of Lafayette. This means tropical storm conditions are expected with the next 36 hours.
A storm surge watch extends as far east as Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and as far west as Freeport, Texas. This watch includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. This watch means life-threatening inundation of water moving ashore over land is possible within the area in 48 hours or less.
A hurricane watch extends as far north as Lufkin, Texas, and tropical storm watches extend as far north as the Interstate 20 corridor from near Tyler, Texas.
Laura is centered around 360 miles south-southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana. It's tracking to the west-northwest at just over 15 mph.
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters shows that Laura has attained Category 2 status.
Satellite imagery shows the storm is becoming increasingly organized as it moves into a favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. Rapid intensification is ongoing.
U.S. Hurricane Threat
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast shows Laura will curl more to the northward on Wednesday and Thursday.
A period of rapid intensification is expected to continue during the next 24 hours, according to the NHC. That means it will have a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
(IN DEPTH: Why Laura Could Join List of Recent Gulf Hurricanes That Rapidly Intensified)
Laura is predicted to become a major hurricane - Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - prior to making landfall somewhere along the southwest Louisiana or upper Texas coasts Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in these areas on Wednesday.
There may still be subtle, yet important changes to the track and intensity forecast.
For instance, any westward shift of the track could increase the threat of Laura's strongest winds, storm surge and rain in the Houston-Galveston metro area. As a result, residents in these areas should prepare for a potential hurricane strike.
"Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 hours is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10 mph," the NHC said late Tuesday evening.
The bottom line is that Laura is likely to bring storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to parts of Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts beginning Wednesday. Keep in mind that a hurricane isn't just a point. Impacts will extend far from where the center eventually moves inland.
(MORE: Why the Projected Path For Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Doesn't Always Tell the Full Story)
Storm Surge Threat
The highest potential surge is expected along and to the immediate east of the center of Laura as it moves ashore Wednesday night or early Thursday.
According to the National Hurricane Center, that could lead to inundation of 9 to 14 feet above ground level from near the Texas and Louisiana border, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake, if it occurs at high tide.
The National Hurricane Center said storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the coast in southwest Louisiana and far southeast Texas.
See the map below for other storm surge peak inundation forecasts from the NHC.
Follow the advice of local and state officials if you are ordered to evacuate an area prone to storm surge flooding.
Larger swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the Gulf Coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and will continue to increase and spread west. These will likely be accompanied by dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding, particularly at high tide, which is generally each morning.
Wind
Tropical storm conditions are possible along parts of the western Gulf Coast by Wednesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.
Areas that see the strongest winds on the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts could have widespread power outages possibly lasting for days, if not over a week, downed trees and structural damage. The potential for tree damage and power outages will affect areas farther inland along the path of Laura across eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee.
The potential for wind damage in the eastern Houston metro area is increasing, but will depend on the exact track of Laura. A farther west track would increase the risk of damaging winds in Houston.
Heavy Rain Threat
Laura will also spread rain and wind impacts far inland through parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley into Saturday.
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center, parts of western Louisiana, eastern Texas and much of Arkansas could pick up 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts up to 15 inches.
Locally heavy rain is also possible from the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.
This could lead to widespread flash flooding, especially in urban areas, and minor to moderate river flooding that could linger for some time after Laura leaves.
Tornadoes
Landfalling hurricanes sometimes produce tornadoes to the east of where the storm's center tracks.
The area with the greatest chance of seeing a few tornadoes from Laura on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night is from southeastern Texas into southwest Mississippi.
Portions of Louisiana, western Mississippi and Arkansas could see a few tornadoes on Thursday.
Laura's History
Tropical Depression Thirteen formed in the Atlantic last Wednesday night and strengthened into Tropical Storm Laura on Friday morning.
Laura is the earliest Atlantic 'L' named storm on record. The previous record was Luis on Aug. 29, 1995, according to Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist at Colorado State University.
Laura brought heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later Friday through Saturday.
Southern parts of Puerto Rico picked up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall.
Winds gusted up to 75 mph at Salinas, along Puerto Rico's southern coast.
Portions of the Dominican Republic picked up nearly a foot of rain from Laura over the weekend, which triggered serious flash flooding in some areas.
(MORE: Tropical Storm Laura Turned Deadly in the Dominican Republic, Haiti)
Sustained winds of 60 mph with a gust over 70 mph was measured in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, Sunday evening.
Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province in western Cuba around 8:00 p.m. Monday with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
A wind gust of 69 mph was measured in Key West, Florida, Monday afternoon as a line of showers associated with Laura moved through.
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